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Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Section 301 (Link)
• Greek operators return to the Russian crude trade, leaving a vacancy in the Atlantic Basin Aframax market (Link)
• Evolution of Russian dirty oil flows to Asia (Link)

Dry 🚢

• New Tariffs Signal a Period of Disrupted Dry Bulk Trade Flows (Link)
• Capesize Ballasters Drop as China Draws on Iron Ore Stockpile (Link)
• Weekly Agri Commodity Update (Link)

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Chinese Shipping In The Crosshairs - Poten & Partners​

According to the office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), China is targeting the maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors for dominance. The USTR concluded this at the tail end of the Biden Administration in response to a petition filed by five U.S. labor unions back in March 2024. Under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the USTR is allowed to “address unreasonable or discriminatory acts, policies or practices that burden or restrict U.S. commerce”.

Now, the new Trump Administration has announced the actions it proposes to take. It is considering imposing additional fees on Chinese shipping companies, companies that use Chinese ships and/or companies that have ships on order in China each time one of their vessels enters a U.S. port. The USTR also proposed a requirement that a percentage of U.S. exports are transported on U.S.-flagged ships, a subset of which would also need to be U.S. built. At this point, this is only a proposal (the USTR is asking for public comments by 24 March 2025) and important details with respect to implementation & enforcement are still unclear. However, in this Tanker Opinion, we will try to determine how implementation of proposals as they are currently written, may impact the crude oil and product tanker market.

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The main elements of the proposals are as follows:

1. Vessels from Chinese owners or operators will be charged a fee of up to $1 Million (or up to $1,000 per net ton of capacity) each time they enter a U.S. port
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2. Any operator of a Chinese-built vessel that enters a U.S. port will be charged a fee of up to $1.5 Million. If the operator’s fleet is >50% Chinese built, vessels of that operator will be charged a fee of up to $1 Million per entry; if the operator’s fleet is 25-50% Chinese built, the fee is up to $750,000 per entry; for fleets <25% Chinese built, the fee is up to $500,000 per entry.
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3. Additional fees are proposed for operators that have vessels on order at Chinese shipyards. If more than 50% of an operators’ orderbook (for delivery within the next 24 months) is from Chinese yards: $1.0 Million; more than 25% and less than 50%: $750,000; and $500,000 if more than 0% and less than 25%.
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4. Some of the fees can be refunded if operators use U.S. built vessels for entry into U.S. ports.
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5. In addition to the above, U.S. exports will need to increasingly use U.S.-flagged, and U.S. built vessels: 1% of all exports in year 1 will be restricted to U.S. flagged vessels by U.S. operators, growing to 5% after 3 years (of which 3% to be U.S. built) and ultimately (after 7 years) 15% U.S.-flagged and operated and 5% U.S. built. ​
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To determine what might happen to the tanker trades if these rules are being put into effect “as-is” later this year, we have to put things in perspective. Based on Vortexa data, tankers made an estimated 12,108 port calls in 2024 (Chart 1). We don’t know how many of these calls were made by Chinese operators or operators with Chinese built vessels in their fleet or operators with newbuildings on order at Chinese shipyards. However, if we take a look at the current tanker fleet and the orderbook, we can get a general feel for the numbers. As per February 1st, the total tanker fleet of vessels >10,000 dwt consists of some 6,907 ships, of which 1,548 (22%) are built in China. Out of the total orderbook of 1,130 tankers, 788 (70%!) are being built in China.

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Russia's Shadow Fleet Has Been Busy - Windward​

This week marked the three-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine (February 24, 2025). As we’ve discussed at length, the war has driven the emergence of Russia’s shadow fleet, or gray and dark fleets. They are used for smuggling Russian cargo while appearing legitimate, or at least trying to evade detection.

As if commemorating its own anniversary, the shadow fleet has been exceptionally active these past few weeks.

First-Time Visits

Over the recent 30-day period (January 25-February 24, 2025), 461 vessels flagged for sanctions compliance risk related to the Russian regime conducted 716 first-time visits to ports around the world.

First-time visits are not inherently suspicious, but when occurring in bulk, specifically by vessels of interest that are related to sanctioned regimes, they could indicate:

• New sanction evasion methods
• New trade relations being forged
• Other noteworthy trends

This is why first-time visits in new geographies constitute an anomaly that is flagged in Windward’s platform, allowing users to scrutinize and monitor such events.

A closer look at where these first visits occurred shows that the highest number was unexpectedly in Ukraine (30 visits), followed by Malaysia (25 visits). All of these vessels are affiliated with the Russian regime, either through ownership or behavioral indicators (port calls, for example).

Several are also marked as high or moderate risk for smuggling. Among the higher-risk vessel groups, Malaysia emerged as the leading destination for first visits.

As Western sanctions have tightened on its popular third-country allies, such as India and China, Russia has been seeking new markets and transit routes for its oil exports. Malaysia has clearly emerged as one of the new destinations for the shadow fleet.

Malaysia’s position in Southeast Asia makes it an attractive transit point or destination for Russian oil exports, especially given the expanding Asian market for Russian oil. Unlike EU countries, Malaysia may have less rigorous enforcement of Western sanctions, making it a more accessible destination for the shadow fleet.

Security Incidents Involving Russian Shadow Fleet Tankers

Italian port authorities reported an incident in the Savona port area buoy on February 14. Malta-flagged oil-product tanker Seajewel reported two explosions heard by the ship’s crew while offloading at one of the port’s offshore terminal buoys.

Divers’ investigation of the Greek-owned vessel known to regularly trade Russian oil revealed two holes in the ship’s hull and dead fish around it. This raises the likelihood of an initiated explosion by an external factor. The vessel was transporting oil from Russia to Europe in violation of sanctions when these explosions occurred.

Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform flagged the Seajewel as high risk for sanction compliance back in November 2024, based on its port calls in Russia, dark activity, and suspicious cargo.

There was another suspicious explosion earlier this month, on February 9, in Ust Luga, Russia. It involved the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged crude oil tanker Koala, which was reportedly damaged by mines near the port.

The Koala was flagged on February 4 by Windward as a moderate risk for smuggling, due to multiple and recent identity changes, irregular business structure, and dark activities, which is added to its sanctions compliance high-risk score, in part for being owned by a sanctioned company (Cyprus-based).

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Suspicious Movements Around Turkish Underwater Cables

There were reports in recent months that submarine cables were sabotaged in areas frequented by countries on either side of geopolitical divides – Russia and EU countries in the Baltic Sea, and China and Taiwan in the South China Sea. These events prompted probes into vessels that may be involved. Many of the vessels at the center of these investigations are shadow fleet ships.

Windward analysts detected suspicious movements around the Mednautilus Submarine System infrastructure, located in the Sea of Marmara. A gray fleet vessel, sailing under the Panama flag and marked as a moderate smuggling risk and moderate compliance risk, displayed unusual behavior above the cable – including unusual loitering multiple times in February.

Dry bulk freight earnings gain on iron ore congestion and Pacific coal chartering - Kpler​
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Iron Ore & Steel: Australian iron ore exports hit multi-year low due to Cyclone Zelia

• Global seaborne iron ore exports slumped to 18.55 Mt in the week ending 16 February, marking a sharp 35% drop against the five-year average of 28.53 Mt. The drop was driven by Australian shipments plunging to their lowest level since at least 2017, as major ports, including Hedland, Dampier, and Walcott, were forced to pause operations for three days due to the tropical Cyclone Zelia. Kpler data shows that over 130 iron ore vessels were waiting to be loaded at Western Australian ports by the end of last week, the worst congestion in four years.
• Rio Tinto, the world’s top iron ore producer, has estimated shipment losses of 13 Mt due to the cyclone-related disruptions. It aims to mitigate approximately half of these losses throughout the year. This aligns with our view that Q1 2025 shipments could hit a multi-year low. For now, the miner has upheld its 2025 guidance of 323-338 Mt but has stated that a full review will be conducted at the end of the quarter. We believe the lower end of the current annual guidance range (323 Mt) remains achievable, provided there is no further disruption.
• Meanwhile, Mineral Resources (MinRes), Australia’s fifth-largest iron ore exporter, has revised down its FY2025 Onslow shipment guidance from 10.50-11.70 Mt to 8.80-9.30 Mt, citing significant flooding that damaged sections of the Onslow Iron haul road. This marks yet another setback for the Onslow project following a truck crash in November, with Kpler data showing weekly shipments from the site have slowed since mid-January. As a result, MinRes now expects the project to reach its full 35 Mtpa capacity in Q1 FY2026 (ending September) rather than Q4 FY2025 (ending June) as initially scheduled.
• Iron ore prices have edged lower from last week’s multi-month highs as concerns over Australian supply disruptions ease, while renewed trade tensions—triggered by Trump’s latest tariff threats on autos—have weighed on sentiment. The SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) fell 1.04% w/w to $106.69/t on 19 February, while the most active May 2025 contract on the DCE declined 1.21% w/w to 818 yuan/t ($112.31/t). We expect the SGX benchmark to hover around $105/t in the run-up to China’s annual “Two Sessions” in early March, with prices supported by fresh stimulus hopes. However, any disappointment in new policy measures could see the benchmark quickly retreat to the $100/t mark.

Australian iron ore exports plunged on Cyclone Zelia (Mt/week)

Coal: Lower prices weigh on mining revenues, coal becomes competitive against petcoke

• Seaborne metallurgical coal deliveries rose by 500,000t w/w to 4.5 Mt last week, mainly driven by high demand from Japan and South Korea, while deliveries to India and China edged lower w/w.
• Seaborne thermal coal imports rebounded to 16.8 Mt last week from a low base of 13.7 Mt the previous week, driven by a recovery in receipts from China and India.
• The world’s largest thermal coal producer, Glencore, announced that it made a loss in 2024 owing to weaker coal prices and one-off impairment adjustments to its balance sheet. The company ruled out any immediate production cuts to its thermal and metallurgical coal production. Glencore’s latest guidance suggests thermal coal production will remain steady at around 100Mt until 2028. Thermal coal production is projected to fall after 2028 however, the company has not ruled out cutting output if market conditions deteriorate further. The company plans to produce around 30-35 Mtpa of metallurgical coal in the coming years, which aligns with its previous production levels and output from its latest metallurgical coal acquisition EVR’s mining assets.
• Despite the recovery, China’s thermal coal receipts are on track to fall for the second consecutive month. Kpler data indicates aggregate receipts will be around 20-21 Mt, down from 23 Mt last year. Mining operations in China have restarted after the end of the spring festival, which should weigh on the need for imports, given that early indicators suggest that coal consumption from the power sector is lower than 2024 levels so far this year. Chinese metallurgical coal demand also faces headings. However, this is unlikely to have a significant impact on the seaborne market given Mongolia’s role as a supplier to China via rail route. Metallurgical coal stocks at the Ganqumaodu crossing are growing at a steep rate due to weak offtake.
• Indian buyers also increased their thermal coal intake last week, with receipts from Indonesia, South Africa and the US gaining by 300-500,000t w/w to take aggregate receipts to 3.5Mt. The increase in US receipts coincides with petcoke’s eroding competitiveness into the country, as some traders are offering distressed Northern Appalachian coal cargoes into India at lower rates than petcoke on an energy-adjusted basis. Imports from the US rose to 400,000t last week, the highest since late May 2024.

India thermal coal imports from US (Mt)

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