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Insights 📈

Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Section 301 Saga - (Link)
• Make America Build Ships Again? (Link)
• USTR’s port fees have more bark than bite as exemptions minimise impact on oil/products fleet (Link)​

Dry 🚢

• Mixed signals in China's dry bulk import profile (Link)
• Agricultural commodities update (Link)

Other 🌎

• How Will Trump’s Changing Tariffs Be Monitored & Enforced? (Link)

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Modest recovery in WoW container bookings, YoY Bookings Sharply Decline - Vizion​

As of late April, container booking volumes have begun to recover modestly after several weeks of steep declines. While this week’s gains hint at stabilisation, year-over-year comparisons remain sharply negative revealing continued uncertainty in the wake of tariff changes and shifting trade dynamics.

For the week of April 21, 2025, two product categories posted the steepest week-over-week declines in global container bookings. HS Code 60 (Knitted Fabrics) fell by 18.9%, while HS Code 25 (Minerals and Cement) dropped by 15.5%. These sharp dips suggest a pullback in demand or order activity for key textile and building material inputs heading into late April.

Global Bookings:

Global Bookings Edge Up Following Pullback: Worldwide TEU bookings grew 4.3% week-over-week, rising to 1.88 million TEUs. However, year-over-year volumes are still down 12.1%, indicating that the brief rebound has yet to overcome broader weakness stemming from macroeconomic and policy-related headwinds.

China to US:

China to US Shipments Rebound Slightly but Remain Weak: After plummeting for three consecutive weeks, container bookings from China to the U.S. rose 11.8% week-over-week to 90,831 TEUs. Despite the improvement, bookings remain 48.6% lower than the same week last year, and 32.7% below the late March pre-tariff level of 134,911 TEUs, signaling that the recovery is tentative at best.

Exempt or exposed: The bigger they are, the more they pay - Kpler​

How far does 2,000 nautical miles get you? Far enough to exclude most regional trades from the US port fee. Countries such as Canada, Mexico, Jamaica, and others fall comfortably within this range when exporting to the US.

Market & Trading Calls

• Most US dry bulk imports will be exempt from the port fee under the 17 April revision, particularly smaller vessels on shorter routes.
• Under Annex II, the fee will only be assessed for imports upon the intersection of two criteria: vessel size and voyage distance relative to the US port.
• No exemptions apply to trades (import and export) affected under Annex I, so any vessels operated and/or owned by a Chinese-linked entity are liable.

The blow now falls by degrees and only a fraction of US dry bulk imports is liable to the US port fee after the 17 April revision. This makes the impact more quantifiable.

The United States Trade Representative (USTR)’s initial proposal, which was agnostic to voyage distance, vessel size, or operating profile, would have triggered fees in both trade directions.

Most voyages will be exempt

Most dry bulk imports, especially on geared vessel segments on shorter routes, will be categorised under one or more exemptions under Annex II of the USTR’s Section 301. A Chinese-built dry bulk vessel will not be subject to a fee if it:

• Is equal to or below 80k dwt
• Arrives at a US port from a foreign location less than 2,000 nautical miles away
• Arrives in ballast
• Is enrolled in Maritime Administration (MARAD) programmes or US-flagged
• Sails on routes between the US, the Caribbean, the Great Lakes or US territories

How far does 2,000 nautical miles get you?

It is far enough to exclude most regional trades. A dry bulk vessel must exceed 80k dwt and sail more than 2,000 nautical miles from a foreign port to be liable. So, if only one condition is met, it is not subject to a fee. Countries such as Canada, Mexico, Jamaica, and others described below fall comfortably within this range when exporting to the US. The list of countries is not exhaustive.

In terms of ton-miles, Canadian dry bulk exports will be the largest beneficiary of the short sea trade

2024 US dry bulk imports by voyage: At 1.5%, only a small portion and specifically targeted dry bulk import, will be impacted.

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Tanker Fleet Rebounding: Revealing Latest Orderbook Trends - AXSMarine​

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The global tanker fleet orderbook has rebounded sharply from the historic low witnessed over 2020–2021. AXSMarine data shows that the overall tanker orderbook-to-existing-fleet ratio has climbed from under 5% to roughly 15–16%, indicating renewed confidence from owners. Several factors drive this trend, including major shifts in trade flows, an aging global fleet, and the strong appeal of modern tonnage equipped for future regulatory compliance. Changing sanctions' regimes and new refining capacities in Asia and the Middle East have also boosted ton-mile demand, as oil and product shipments travel longer distances. In spite of these positive dynamics, questions remain about the balance between new vessel deliveries and demand. Macroeconomic risks and the impact of ongoing energy transition policies incur some uncertainty, making it crucial for stakeholders to track data-driven trends and plan fleet development strategies accordingly.

Historical context and market overview

From its previous peak in 2016 to the end of 2022, tanker newbuilding activity slowed dramatically, reaching a multi-decade low when the orderbook-to-fleet ratio dipped below 5%. Owners confronted weak freight markets and lingering doubts about future marine fuel technologies. AXSMarine data confirm a decisive turnaround since early 2023, with the combined crude and product tanker orderbook surging from roughly below 28m MT of deadweight to over 105m MT of deadweight by the end of 2024. This has propelled the ratio above 15%, underscoring the industry’s renewed willingness to invest after a period of caution. The present ordering wave was partly tied to sustained earnings in 2022, but there are also longer-term reasons for fleet renewal. Older units, including many built in the early 2000s, remain in service, often concentrated in sanctioned or "shadow" trades. While that phenomenon has prevented scrapping from rising significantly, the steady addition of more modern ships raises questions about overcapacity if supply overshoots the modest growth in global oil demand.

Crude Oil tankers: Trends and Outlook

Crude-focused segments such as VLCCs and Suezmaxes had seen contracting stalling during the depths of the pandemic. Owners were hesitant to order large crude carriers with uncertain demand and high buildingprices. Spotcharter rates for crude tankers rebounded toward the end of 2022, fuelling a wave of fresh orders. The crude tanker orderbook now stands atabout 12% of the current fleet, a significant rise from its low of just 3% in early 2023. Much of this expansion is a response to shifting oil trade patterns, including longer-haul routes for Russian crude to Asia and evolving OPEC+ supply adjustments. Another factor shaping the crude tanker market is the gradual enforcement of the IMO's EEXI and CII rules. Although these regulations have not yet forced widespread demolition, they have encouraged more eco-friendly designs and, in some cases, pushed high-emitting older tankers into slower speeds or specialized trades.
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