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Oil & Gas 🛢️

• The Year in Review (Link)
• Big-3’s crude exports dip in December, led by Russia (Link)
• The (Mostly) Predictable Parade (Link)
• Tanker Market Supply Scenarios for 2025 and 2026: Risks of Oversupply Amid Shadow Fleet Uncertainty (Link)

Dry 🚢

• Declining Cargo Order Volumes Indicate a Soft End to the Year for Chinese Steel Exports‍ (Link)
• The start of the year confirms a challenging freight market environment for the Capesize iron ore sector (Link)

Other 🌍

• Global Port Congestion: 68% of Major Ports See Anchor Times Increase in 2024 (Link)
• Cosco and CIMC put on US Defense Department sanctions list (Link)

Explore, test, and feedback on maritime data solutions before they hit the market.

We're delighted to be launching a number of beta tests for new-to-market data services over the next few months, and we'd like to offer you the opportunity to take part.

How does it work?

Our upcoming beta tests will focus on new data services created by our partners.

Participants will:

• Learn about new and upcoming solutions
• Test new data services as they are being developed
• Access these services before general release

Who is this for?

We're looking for people who:

• Who consider data and analytics as a core part of their business
• Are willing to engage and provide feedback
• Are open-minded about exploring new use cases and applications

Upcoming Opportunities 2025

We have several beta tests scheduled over the next few months, including:

• Global Maritime Security Event Data
• A new benchmark for asset quality, backed by the world’s largest network of surveyors.
• Predictive models for Freight

How to get involved?

You can register your interest for this, and future beta tests below:

The Eagle S and the Threat to Underwater Infrastructure - Windward​

Media outlets reported that Finnish authorities have seized a ship in the Baltic Sea on suspicion it caused the outage of an undersea power cable connecting Finland and Estonia.

This ship, known as the Eagle S, docked in Ust Luga, Russia on December 23, 2024. It disabled its AIS signal for ten hours, reappearing two days later on December 25. That evening, the vessel sailed slowly above the undersea Estlink 2 power cable in the Gulf of Finland, coinciding with a sudden cable outage.

Windward’s AI models classified the Eagle S as a moderate sanctions compliance and security risk. Key factors contributing to this assessment include:

• Lack of P&I insurance: a red flag in the maritime industry
• Flagged by the gray fleet model: the vessel was carrying 35,000 tonnes of Russian petrol when it was apprehended
• Flag of convenience: registered under the Cook Islands and classed by the Indian Class Society
• Spy ship capabilities: the Eagle S had numerous transmitting and receiving devices, transforming it into a potential surveillance asset for Russia

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The Importance of Early Intelligence

This is the third undersea cable damaged in the Baltic region in the past few months. These incidents highlight the growing vulnerability of underwater critical infrastructure – a pressing issue tied closely to national security, resilience, and geopolitics.

In November, two undersea internet cables were suddenly disrupted, with one of them being the C-LION1, the only direct connection of its kind between Finland and Central Europe. Consequent reports strengthened the suspicion that this was an act of deliberate sabotage.

Windward Early Detection flagged suspicious activities in the Baltic Sea, weeks before the C-Lion disruption. Such insights, when acted on promptly, can avert potential crises by alerting law enforcement agencies ahead of time.

The Blurred Line Between Military and Commercial Activity

According to Windward insights, over the past six months, nearly 26,000 area visits have been made by approximately 1,400 Shadow Fleet vessels or Russian-related vessels.

The Eagle S exemplifies the growing overlap between commercial and paramilitary operations. With surveillance equipment aboard a merchant vessel, the question arises: are these ships truly commercial or covertly government-operated? This ambiguity is further complicated by UNCLOS, which allows freedom of passage for merchant vessels but excludes intelligence gathering under Article 19, 2. (c). Proving breaches of innocent passage could lead to significant legal and operational consequences.
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Dry Bulk Market Insights Report -January 2025 - Tradeviews​

ECONOMIC NEWS

UNCTAD latest Global Trade Update reported that global trade is poised to hit an all-time high of nearly $33 trillion in 2024, with a $1 trillion increase largely driven by a 7% rise in services trade. However, goods trade rose by a more meagre 2%, remaining below its 2022 peak. UNCTAD sees risks of rising trade tensions and ongoing geopolitical challenges casting uncertainty over the outlook for 2025.

The World Bank has raised its economic outlook for China despite an expected hike in US tariffs on imported goods when President-elect Trump takes office in January. It raised its China GDP estimate for 2024 to 4.9%, up from 4.8% in its June forecast, due to recent policy easing and near-term export strength. GDP growth in 2025 is now expected to be 4.5%, notably higher than its earlier forecast of 4.1%. The bank anticipates that slower household income growth and the negative wealth effect from lower home prices to weigh on Chinese consumption in 2025

STEEL

Brazilian miner Vale said it expects to produce between 325 million and 335 million tonnes of iron ore in 2025, following an expected output of around 328 million tonnes in 2024. The company also expects to increase iron ore production to between 340 million and 360 million tonnes in 2026 and to be producing around 360 million tonnes in 2030.

The state-run China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute said it estimates China’s steel demand to drop 4.4% in 2024 from a year earlier and to fall a further 1.5% in 2025. Steel consumption was forecast to be 863 million tonnes in 2024 and 850 million tonnes in 2025.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s crude steel production in November fell to 78.4 million tonnes compared to 81.88 million tonnes in October However, the fall was only just over 1% when measured on an average daily output basis. November’s output was up 2.5% from a year earlier but output in the first 11 months of 2024 was down 2.7% year-on-year.

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POWER COAL

The IEA’s Coal 2024 report notes that global coal demand reached a new high of 8.77 billion tonnes in 2024 but is expected to level off through to 2027 as a surge in renewable power helps meet soaring demand for electricity, including in the largest consumer, China. However, weather factors, particularly in China, will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. In most advanced economies, coal demand has already peaked. In some emerging economies, such as India, Indonesia and Viet Nam, demand for coal is still increasing, mainly in the power sector but also in industrial use. International trade in coal in 2024 is expected to reach a record 1.55 billion tonnes. However, looking forward, global trade volumes are set to shrink with thermal coal seeing the biggest decline. Asia remains the centre of international coal trade with all the largest importing countries plus Indonesia and Australia included among the largest exporters.

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Thank you for your time.

Regards,

James Littlejohn

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

+44 (0)208 050 9806

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