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Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Kurdish Crude Recommences (Link)
• More Barrels To The Med (Link)
• Russian gasoline exports dry up (Link)​

Dry 🚢

• European Commission set out in early October a draft proposal to replace the bloc’s current steel safeguard system. (Link)
• Dry Bulk Freight Recap (Link)
• Minor bulk exports stay strong, but new policies in Africa and U.S. tariffs point to major shifts ahead (Link)

Other 🌎

• Wood Furniture Imports Shift as New U.S. Tariffs Near (Link)
• Global Port Performance: September (Link)
• Auto imports plummet under new tariff regime (Link)

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Iran’s oil network matures under sanctions pressure - Vortexa​

When the UN’s snapback sanctions on Iran officially returned on September 27, many expected exports to falter. Instead, tankers kept loading, ships kept sailing and China — Iran’s top buyer — kept taking cargoes.

The result: Iran’s oil keeps moving, but through a tighter, more efficient shadow fleet that has quietly adapted despite renewed legal pressure.

What the UN snapback actually does

The snapback mechanism, part of UN Resolution 2231, reinstates prior UN sanctions if Iran breaches its nuclear commitments.

Triggered in August 2025 by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, it restored restrictions on arms, finance and shipping that were originally due to expire on October 18, 2025.

Now that the snapback has taken effect, these sanctions are effectively back in force - reactivating must of the UN’s pre-2016 sanctions framework.

Russia and China have rejected the move, and enforcement remains uneven, meaning the impact is legal, not logistical. While enforcement remains limited, the snapback restores a unified legal framework for future action — giving the US and E3 a stronger platform for coordinated secondary sanctions.

Flows stay high and predictable

Vortexa data shows Iran’s crude and condensate loadings ranged between 1.3–1.6 mbd since late 2023, with several peaks above 1.8 mbd in early 2025 — the highest since 2018.

Roughly 85–90% of those volumes head to China, driven by deep discounts and reported barter-style payment arrangements.

A stabilised dark fleet

Beneath those volumes lies a network built on ship-to-ship (STS) transfers — the engine of Iran’s shadow trade.

Over the past three years, 82% of Iran–China voyages involved at least one STS operation, typically near Malaysia or Fujairah.

That system is no longer improvised — it’s optimised.

Carriers' Operating Margins Fall Below 10%, Lowest in 18 Months - AXSMarine​

The world’s major container carriers saw their profitability slip sharply in the second quarter of 2025. According to Alphaliner, the average operating margin (EBIT) among the nine largest carriers dropped to 9.9%, marking the lowest level since late 2023.

While margins have previously dipped during downturns, this latest decline is striking because it comes despite the ongoing Red Sea crisis, which continues to distort global shipping routes. Unlike in late 2023, when the Red Sea disruptions initially helped lift freight rates, the current fall suggests that the market’s resilience has weakened.

There was, however, notable variation among individual carriers. Taiwan’s Wan Hai Lines maintained its strong position with an impressive 24.9% margin, mirroring its Q1 results and comfortably ahead of Evergreen in second place at 16.7%. Most other lines saw steep quarter-to-quarter declines, signaling a tightening margin environment across the board.

Trump Tariffs Explained: Trade Policy, Maritime Measures and Shipping Impacts - Windward​

An Overview of Trump’s Tariff Measures

Liberation Day tariffs: On April 2, 2025, the administration launched a sweeping regime of “reciprocal” tariffs. According to the Financial Times’ Trump tracker, as of September 4, these duties raised the effective tariff rate to around 16% based on announced policy. This is nearly ten times higher than the pre‑Trump level and pushed actual tariff receipts well above $10 bn per month. The new tariffs particularly targeted imports from China, the EU, India, Brazil, Canada and Mexico. While some partners subsequently negotiated deals (UK, Vietnam, Indonesia and Japan), the U.S. overall tariff rate remains near Depression‑era highs.

Tariffs on steel and other goods: President Trump signed a proclamation on June 3 that increased the section 232 duty on steel to 50% from 25% on all countries including allies. The EU had earlier imposed a 25% duty on steel to counter Trump’s 2019 tariffs, but it had been relaxed. A 50% tariff on a range of semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivative goods such as copper pipes, wires, rods, sheets was imposed on August 1. In September President Trump said in a social media post that he would raise tariffs on heavy trucks to 25%, 50% on cabinets, and 30% on furniture under national security provisions. These three sectors are currently subject to investigation as required under Section 232. The U.S. has also said that “derivative” steel products could be subject to tariffs such as wind turbines, windows and doors with some metal.

Tariffs on Brazil and Mexico: None for Russia: Washington applied a 50 % tariff on many Brazilian goods in July 2025, citing alleged anti‑American actions by the Lula government. Mexico, under U.S. pressure, proposed 50 % tariffs on Chinese cars and 1,400 other products to curb Chinese trade and avoid secondary U.S. tariffs. Trump has also urged G7 countries to adopt secondary tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil. Brussels responded by indicating it was planning tariffs on Russian oil sold to Hungary and Slovakia but these provisions have yet to be formally approved and may not be implemented. Russia was excluded from Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

Tariffs on Indian goods: Trump raised duties on Indian exports to 50% in August citing trade barriers and India’s continued buying of Russian oil. The Financial Times notes that only around 2% of India’s GDP depends on U.S. demand, and many exports (electronics and pharmaceuticals) remain exempt, producing an effective tariff rate of 33%–36%. Economists estimate the new tariffs might shave 0.6–0.8 percentage points from India’s growth

China tariffs: U.S.-China tariffs are complex and increasingly changing with overlapping measures. Reciprocal and product-specific tariffs make it difficult to determine which duties apply. Currently, there is a 20% tariff on fentanyl and a temporary 10% reciprocal tariff. In August, President Trump announced another 90-day pause on Chinese tariffs, extending into early November. Without this extension, U.S. duties on Chinese goods would have risen to 145%.

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