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• Ceasefire Effect: GPS Jamming Eases and Unusual AIS Messages Reflect Maritime Caution (Link)
• Security risks impacting global shipping in Q2 2025 (Link)
• China Reconfigures Export Markets as Shipments to U.S. Plummet (Link)

Caution, U-turns and rising rates, but tanker traffic continues largely unscathed for now - Lloyd's List​

Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz paused in the wake of US military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, but only briefly and volumes remained largely unaffected on Monday in response.

While at least five tankers performed swift U-turns following the US strikes in the early hours of June 22, traffic has remained within normal ranges after an immediate Iranian response to US strikes on its nuclear facilities failed to materialise, leaving crude supply from the Middle East still largely unaffected by the escalating conflict.

A total of 15 tanker transits through the strait were recorded on Sunday by Lloyd's List Intelligence vessel-tracking data, down from the 21 transits recorded on June 21, but well within the normal range.

After a brief spike to a five-month high above $80 per barrel on Monday, the rally in Brent crude futures quickly dissipated as it became clear that, for now, tankers were continuing to trade, albeit with added rates, pauses and the expectation of disruption to come.

Shipowners are trying to minimise time that vessels spend inside the Strait of Hormuz due to the conflict, but most are still moving.

Lloyd’s List understands that several owners and loading ports inside the Middle East Gulf are now instructing vessels to delay crossing the strait until shortly before the scheduled loading time.

Some vessels have chosen to sail through the strait during daylight hours as a result of the threats, but the combination of those changes in transit patterns and ships waiting to transit, is already resulting in increasing ship congestion near Dubai and in the southern Gulf of Oman.

Despite the relative calm in the market and minimal disruption so far, the anticipated military response from Iran “is likely to include attacks or seizures of US-affiliated shipping”, according to security firm Ambrey.

Strait of Hormuz Scenarios: Dry Bulk and Geopolitical Risk in the Middle East - Signal Ocean​

Escalating tensions between Iran and Israel are analysed for their potential effects on dry bulk markets, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz. While historical data indicates a full closure by Iran is improbable, disruptions via attacks, mines, or vessel harassment could significantly affect shipping routes and freight rates, but unlike in oil, it will have a negligible effect on dry bulk commodities. Iran and China have a strategic relationship in the oil market, but in terms of dry bulk, Iran is not a notable exporter. The report details two scenarios: a complete closure and a partial disruption, examining their respective consequences and possible mitigation strategies.

Current view of the dry bulk market in the Strait of Hormuz

The dry bulk market is expected to be less affected by the ongoing situation between Iran and Israel; however, examining the current situation can help determine the best way to position oneself in the market. Given that the region bordering the strait is a net importer of dry bulk, particularly of raw materials needed for the construction sector, and grain, we see many more laden vessels enter the strait, east to west, than exit, west to east.

Currently, the vessel count in the Strait moving in both directions sits within the recent year averages, and follows the typical seasonality, indicating the market is currently comfortable with the risk presented by the situation. The Strait appears to be more resilient against the wider geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East than other nearby passages, such as the Red Sea. The Suez Canal has seen a real decline in traffic since the beginning of 2025, when the security of vessels became a key concern, yet the Strait of Hormuz has continued with consistent levels of vessel traffic.

Scenario A: Full Closure of the Strait

The worst-case scenario for shipping due to the ongoing tensions would be a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, preventing any vessels from entering or exiting. This would have a real impact on trade flows, and although not large in tonnage terms, it would have a significant effect on many of the Gulf countries. Reduced grain imports would weaken food security, and fewer arrivals of raw materials would interrupt the vast construction projects ongoing in the region. This would then have a wider impact on the Gulf countries' GDP and be quite inflationary if the blockade were to persist.

The UAE would be particularly vulnerable to a complete closure of the Strait. So far in 2025, the country has received 25% of all dry bulk tonnage arriving in the Arabian Gulf, but only around 5% of those imports have arrived at Fujairah, a port accessible without passing through the Strait. Other importers in the Gulf, mainly Saudi Arabia and Oman, have ports outside the Strait, so the impact will be more in terms of logistics that need to be adapted.

The UAE also leads in terms of dry bulk tonnage export from the Arabian Gulf, leaving the Arabian Gulf at close to 42%. Again, only a small amount of these exports leave from Furjariah. A full closure would lead to much higher congestion at this port, likely leading to higher freight rates due to the bottlenecks, higher risk premiums, and scarce loading capacity.

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Strait of Hormuz: Risk perception drives up freight rates, but transits continue - Vortexa​

Since the Israel-Iran conflict started in the early hours of June 13, the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz has become the prime focus of the tanker market. 24% of all seaborne oil imports transit via Hormuz, and 33% of all crude oil. A passage so vital to global oil trade is essentially “too big to fail”, and the likelihood of Iran closing the Strait is minimal. It would be an extremely escalatory step in the conflict and deprive Iran of the ability to export oil to China.

Hormuz transits so far within normal range

We have closely tracked transit levels through the Strait of Hormuz since June 13, which remain within normal ranges. Transits for the week ending June 22 were robust, 4% above the 2024 average and slightly higher than the weekly average for the month leading up to the attack. This strength in overall transits in the third week of June is worth highlighting, especially because crude/condensate exports from within the Middle East Gulf were very strong in H1 June, as term contracts and front-loading saw exports up almost 20% m-o-m (June 1-15). The dip we have observed in crude tanker transits specifically is a function of reduced export momentum in H2 of the month, which is a common occurrence in MEG loadings.

On an average transits-per-day basis, June figures (days 1-22) are still at a seasonal high. Although there has been volatility day-to-day in terms of transit numbers since the attack, fluctuation in daily transit figures even in normal times is common, and we would caution against drawing conclusions from daily transit changes over a short period of time. This is why we have looked at these transit patterns from a weekly perspective.

Our data shows that operators are not avoiding transiting the Strait of Hormuz, but we have observed instances of vessels waiting outside the strait and appearing to only transit when necessary to make a laycan window.

Despite the low likelihood of a Hormuz closure, even after Iran’s statements this weekend post-US strikes, the tanker market must still account for the inherent risk in voyages in and out of the Middle East Gulf via Hormuz. Consequently, spot freight rates since June 13 have shot up, with VLCC rates out of the Middle East swinging from around ytd lows on June 12 to 16-month highs as of June 23, a rise of more than 100%. This has lifted VLCC rates globally, with US Gulf-origin VLCC rates seeing a 40% rise over the same period.

Increases in War Risk Premiums, which had not risen last week despite rising freight rates, were reported on Monday (Tradewinds) to have increased post-US strikes, another sign that freight costs for charterers will continue to rise as tensions endure.

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