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Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Russia likely to retaliate following Ukraine attacks on shadow fleet tankers (Link)
• Gambia Deletes Shadow Fleet Tankers in Second Flag Governance Crackdown (Link)

Dry 🚢

• Coal continues to lose power in the China-bound capesize market (Link)
• Dry Bulk Freight Overview (Link)
• Dry Bulk Market Insights - Trade Wars, Economic News, and Power Coal (Link)

Other 🌎

• Seismic shift in coffee imports as Colombia, Peru overtake Brazil (Link)
• Japan's Container Trade in 2024: Export Excellence Amid Persistent Trade Deficits (Link)
• 2026 Ocean Shipping Outlook: Overcapacity, Chaos & Opportunities (Link)

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The Beginning of the End (Take 3) - Gibsons​

Once again, negotiations are ongoing to end the war in Ukraine. Back in August we wrote the second iteration of this report, after President Trump and Putin’s first face to face meeting in the former’s second term. That meeting yielded little progress, however, the most recent push for peace has seemingly taken us closer to an end to the war in Ukraine than at any other point since its outset. Negotiations are ongoing, and the initial 28-point plan proposed by the US was countered by a 19-point plan between the US and Ukraine, which Russia was not a part of. Still, as before, the path to peace remains uncertain and it is unclear to what extent trading relationships can revert to pre-war patterns.

Historical demand impact

Tanker tonne miles (crude/DPP/CPP) grew 5.4% in 2022 following the invasion and by 7.2% in 2023 after the implementation of the European/US embargo on Russian oil and oil price cap framework. Whilst not all this growth was attributable to the war, the majority was, particularly in 2023. Tonne mile growth has since slowed, gaining just 1% in 2024, and contracting 1% for the year to date.

Global Crude, DPP, and CPP Tonne Miles

European position

It remains heavily debated whether trade flows might return to “normal” in the event of a peace deal. The current leaders of the UK, France, and Germany, as well as the Baltic and other EU States might try particularly hard to prevent a swing back to Russian energy trade, especially in the event of a “bad deal” for Ukraine. The recently published 28-point plan sets out to reintegrate Russia into the global economy whilst fully lifting sanctions. However, it was reportedly produced without European input. Further, it is unclear what the 19-point counterproposal contains as well as whether Europe had a hand in writing it, let alone Russia. Thus, it remains unclear what the European towards Russia and its energy exports will be.

If it is assumed that any deal is likely to involve sanctions relief, then some normalization in trade flows is possible. The key, however, would be whether European refiners are allowed to return to Russian crude supplies. If this were to be the case, then over time trade flows might shift to resemble something similar (but not the same) as their pre-war patterns.

Next year, European refining throughput will be 500kbd lower than in 2022, as closures in Germany are likely to offer reduced scope for Russian pipeline flows to return to previous levels. Equally, other producers (notably the US) have captured market share in Europe and will need to be displaced. On the CPP side, tanker tonne miles surged as Europe scrambled to replace Russian supplies in 2023 with cargoes from the Middle East, India, and the United States. At the same time, Russian cargoes which typically traded into Europe were pushed to new markets in Latin America, Africa and Asia creating substantial inefficiencies to the benefit of tanker owners and traders. Refining margins in Europe (and worldwide) also benefitted initially and would likely come under pressure if Russian supplies return to Europe, and especially if Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries cease. As a result, we could see lower long-haul imports. The overall impact would be significantly lower tonne miles.

As such, in terms of tonne miles, the reaction of European leaders is of utmost importance. If Europe lifts its current embargo on Russian oil, this will have significant negative implications for tanker demand.

India imports of Russian crude to decline temporarily - Vortexa​

India’s crude imports rose by 220kbd m-o-m to 5.0mbd in November 2025, reaching a seasonal high and approaching the March 2025 record of 5.05mbd. The increase was driven primarily by a sharp rise in Russian crude discharges into India, which climbed 340kbd m-o-m to 1.80mbd. This report examines the drivers behind India’s surge in Russian crude arrivals and assesses the implications for mainstream crude demand and the forward curve.

​India crude/condensate imports with seasonal trends (bd)Refiners in India accelerated discharges of Russian barrels ahead of the 21 November wind‑down deadline, which restricts purchases from US‑sanctioned entities Rosneft and Lukoil. Utilising Vortexa's flows data, more Russian crude was discharged into terminals linked to India's NOCs — and to a lesser extent Reliance — last month. Refiners were strategically stockpiling the additional crude for future processing once sanctions were fully in effect, as the country's crude inventories rose by 6mb m-o-m in November.

​Russia crude arrivals into India by terminals linked to private companies and NOCs (mbd)In the near term, most refiners are likely to scale back Russian crude purchases following last month’s stock build. Nayara Energy stands out as the key exception. Russian crude imports into the refinery have rebounded since EU sanctions in July, and the plant is now almost entirely reliant on Russian supply. Crude imports have returned to levels before EU sanctions, while oil product exports remain subdued, indicating a pivot towards the domestic market. As a result, Nayara is positioned to be the least affected by the recent US sanctions and is expected to continue sourcing exclusively Russian barrels.

November Dry Bulk Trends - Panamax & Panama - AXS Marine​

Panamax Cargo Trends Highlight Shifts in Global Demand

Panamax bulk carriers between 68K and 85K deadweight have transported more than 960 million metric tons of Dry Bulk commodities since the beginning of 2025. This represents a 4.6 percent year-over-year increase and puts the fleet on track to exceed the one billion metric ton threshold for a second consecutive year.

Steam Coal remains the most commonly shipped commodity aboard Panamaxes in 2025. More than 366 million metric tons have been carried so far, which accounts for over 40 percent of all Panamax shipments worldwide and marks a 2.3 percent year-over-year increase. Soybeans follow as the second most common cargo, with more than 103 million metric tons transported since January, an 11.4 percent market share supported by a 4.3 percent year-over-year boost.

Coking Coal ranks very close behind. More than 101.7 million metric tons have been carried aboard Panamaxes this year, up 13.8 percent year over year and representing an 11.3 percent share of global Panamax cargoes.

Other commodity groups also performed strongly. Fertilizers registered a 39.5 percent year-over-year increase in Panamax-carried volumes, while agricultural cargoes as a whole rose 6.7 percent. On the other hand, Iron Ore carried aboard Panamaxes decreased by 4.5 percent, and non-Soybean Grains such as Corn and Wheat saw the steepest decline at 10.6 percent year over year.

Panama Canal Transits Recover, but Fleet Impacts Vary

Bulk Carrier traffic through the Panama Canal has made notable progress toward recovery following the severe drought restrictions that affected global shipping. Over the past three months, Dry Bulk transits have consistently reached more than 90 percent of pre-drought levels. In October alone, more than 240 Bulk Carriers passed through the waterway, which equals nearly 94 percent of the traffic recorded in October 2022.

The recovery, however, differs significantly between vessel segments. Minibulkers and Handysize vessels up to 37K deadweight have surpassed 100 crossings in October, maintaining steady traffic levels above 86 percent of pre-drought averages. Handymax vessels between 37K and 50K deadweight recorded a particularly strong rebound, with crossings up 53.9 percent since the start of the year compared with the same period in 2022.

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