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Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Transit activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained heavily suppressed (Link)
• Middle East Mayhem (Link)
• Strait of Hormuz Disruption - Scenario Analysis (Link)

Dry 🚢

• Dry Bulk Impact of Trump's Spain Threat (Link)
• Agricultural Freight Overview (Link)

Other 🌎

• The Supreme Court’s IEEPA tariff decision: What business needs to know (Link)
• Iran and the Strait of Hormuz Disruption: Containers (Link)

Shadow fleet dominates Hormuz crossings as Iran ramps up bypass loadings - Lloyd's List​

SHADOW fleet* vessels are dominating tanker and gas carrier transits through the Strait of Hormuz as compliant tonnage — aside from several Dynacom tankers and less than a handful others — largely avoids the besieged waterway.

About half of all tanker and gas carrier over 10,000 dwt that have transited the Strait of Hormuz between March 1-8 were part of so-called shadow fleet, according to Lloyd’s List analysis, which included suspected dark transits.

Collecting transit data has become increasingly challenging as more vessels sail through the strait with their Automatic Identification System switched off, and amid widespread GNSS interference in the region.

Meanwhile, Iran has also been utilising a rarely used terminal south of Hormuz to load vessels.

A very large crude carrier was seen loading at the Jask terminal near Kooh Mobarak last week, which marked only the fifth time in as many years that a ship has loaded there, according to TankersTrackers.com co-founder Samir Madani.

The previous time a vessel loaded there was a suezmax in December, Madani told Lloyd’s List.

Part of the reason for the terminal’s low usage may be the long time it takes vessels to load.

“Nothing happens quickly there,” said Madani.

“Last time a VLCC loaded there, it took about 10 days.”

For comparison, a VLCC takes about one or two days to load in Kharg Island, Iran’s main crude export terminal.

S Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore vulnerable to lost Qatari LNG - Vortexa​

QatarEnergy’s force majeure declaration on LNG exports has put Asian buyers into a predicament of having to replace about a fifth of their contracted LNG supply (or a quarter when including spot imports).As the Iran-US war rages on with no imminent end in sight to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, news headlines have focused on the LNG volumes Qatar exports to Asia.However, the true extent of the supply disruption is assessed by the share of Qatari LNG in each market’s total gas supply and gas’ share of their energy mix.

Among Asian buyers, the South Asian economies are most exposed to Qatari LNG, with the emirate accounting for 45-99% of their LNG imports and around 20% of gas supply.However, domestic gas prices are heavily subsidised by their respective governments, so these markets are highly price-sensitive in their appetite for spot LNG.While India can partially offset the Qatari LNG shortfall with coal, gas-dependent Bangladesh and Pakistan have activated gas rationing measures amid a lack of alternative fuel sources and skyrocketing spot LNG prices.

Elsewhere, South Korea (via KOGAS), Taiwan (via CPC), and Singapore (via Shell after Pavilion Energy acquisition) rely on Qatari LNG for 15-35% of their total gas supply. These buyers’ exposure to the spot LNG market is likely to grow substantially because gas accounts for at least a quarter of the power mix in all three countries.In particular, Singapore generates 90% of its electricity from natural gas and has limited capacity to switch to coal or other fuels for power generation. The island imports all of its gas supply, of which close to 60% is from LNG and the remaining via pipelines from Malaysia and Indonesia.

Similarly, gas is Thailand’s primary power generation fuel (60% of power mix). However, Qatar accounts for just 6% of its total gas supply, primarily from a 2 mtpa term deal with PTT. This is equivalent to two to three conventional-sized LNG cargoes per month.

Sailing Into The Unknown - Poten & Partners​

The U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran in what the U.S. military dubbed “Operation Epic Fury”. Iran responded with massive missile and drone barrages targeting U.S. interests and allies in the region. The outbreak of hostilities had an immediate impact on oil prices and tanker freight rates.

The Strait of Hormuz has become key focus of the world, since 20-21 million barrels of crude oil, condensate and petroleum products pass through this chokepoint daily, representing about 20% of global oil consumption and approximately 30% of seaborne oil trade. In today’s tanker opinion we will try to give an overview of the current situation and see what could happen in the short to medium-term if the conflict persists.

After the start of the hostilities, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed to a trickle, but it is important to note that it did not stop completely (see Chart 1). Some ships, including several tankers, do still sail through the Strait, even though the Iranian military stated on March 2nd that "The Strait is closed. If anyone tries to pass, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guard and the regular navy will set those ships ablaze". One of the shipowners who seems unfazed by these threats is George Prokopiou, who’s company, Dynacom has sent at least five tankers through the Strait of Hormuz since the outbreak of the war according to reports in the Financial Times. Several dark fleet tankers are also continuing to use the narrow waterway to export Iranian crude oil from Kharg Island inside the Arabian Gulf. It should be noted that despite this, dark fleet tankers are not sailing risk free though the Strait of Hormuz. Several sanctioned tankers that have been linked to Iran were damaged in attacks this week. Attacks on vessels in the Straits of Hormuz as well as in the Arabian Gulf have caused freight rates to increase dramatically, both in the Middle East as well as in other regions (see Chart 2).

This has made trips from the Arabian Gulf extremely profitable, even considering the much higher insurance premiums that are now being charged. It is important to highlight that war risk insurance is still available for tanker owners (and charterers) that are willing to take the risk. It is just a lot more expensive. Prior to the conflict premiums for vessels sailing into the Arabian Gulf were typically in the range of 0.1 – 0.15% of the value of the vessel. According to various sources, rates have now increased to 1.0%, and, if a vessel is affiliated with the U.S. or Israel, premiums could go up to 3%. However, transiting the Strait of Hormuz poses severe physical security risks that insurance cannot solve. Against that backdrop, the shipping industry is not sure what to make of the U.S. offer of “risk insurance” and – if needed – U.S. Navy escorts. Some shipowners that are trapped in the Arabian Gulf now benefit from the unprecedented freight environment by offering their vessels for floating storage. There are reports of VLCCs earning $400500,000/day on short-term (30-90 day) floating storage contracts.
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