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Iran shipments to Houthis a masterclass in AIS manipulation - Lloyd's List​

The Houthis have a robust weapons supply chain and there are limited options for interrupting these networks​

• Vessels delivering cargo from Iran fly fraudulent flags and hide IMO numbers
• Most arrivals to Houthi-controlled ports call at Djibouti first, suggesting at least initial compliance with a UN mechanism which helps enforce the arms embargo
• Disruption of smuggling supply chain extremely difficult says experts

Despite US and Israeli air strikes on Houthi bases and reports of some seizures of dhows carrying weapons heading into Houthi territory, security analysts have been warning that weapons and components have continued to flow into Yemen.

Intelligence reports suggest that the Houthis continued to restock critical components to assemble ASBMs locally, but also managed to receive a number of additional munitions.

That restocking process has been happening for several months.
​
The Houthis have been receiving what a UN panel of experts described as an ‘unprecedented’ amount of military materiel, a significant amount of which is being moved through the ports of Hodeidah and Saleef.

A Lloyd’s List investigation gives a small insight into this opaque supply chain, revealing the sophisticated manipulation used to complicate efforts to track shipments and difficulties in disrupting these operations.

In its 2024 report, the UN panel of experts identified six vessels for calling at Houthi-controlled ports without receiving clearance from the UN Verification and Inspection Mechanism.

UNVIM is a body that monitors and inspects cargo bound for Yemeni ports not under the internationally recognised government’s control. Its purpose is to facilitate trade into these ports while helping to uphold the arms embargo.

Comoros-flagged aggregates carrier Almas (IMO: 8864957), can be tracked using Automatic Identification System data calling at Hodeidah in October 2023.

Almas did not stop in Djibouti, where UNVIM is based and inspections are carried out, after sailing from Iran.

The entire voyage can be viewed using AIS positions, but an assessment of the messages reveal the efforts taken to conceal the ship’s identity and movements.

Almas never actually transmits its International Maritime Organization number over the course of the voyage. This is because the ship stopped using a class A AIS transponder in October 2022, transmitting only through a class B system from that point onwards.

Class B transponders are designed for smaller vessels. They generally have a smaller data package, with many of the data fields being empty or reporting “not available”, including the IMO number. The data is also not reported as often as class A.

“It’s kind of like pulling up your hood and trying to walk through a busy crowd,” says Lloyd’s List Intelligence data scientist Thomas Spriggs.

​View the full report here​

Does Peak Season Still Exist? A 10-Year Look at Shipping Seasonality Amid Black Swan Disruptions - Vizion​​

Global container shipping has undergone a structural shift over the past decade, reshaping not only how goods move but when they move. What was once a reliably seasonal industry, marked by predictable summer and fall surges ahead of back-to-school and holiday cycles, has become increasingly erratic.

10 years of container booking data across three key lanes: global bookings, U.S. imports, and China-to-U.S. trade. The analysis reveals a clear pattern: the traditional “peak season” has eroded under the weight of black swan disruptions including COVID-19, U.S.–China tariffs, port congestion, equipment shortages, and geopolitical rerouting.

A Decade of Seasonality and Its Undoing (Global Bookings)

From 2015 through 2019, global container bookings followed a recognizable seasonal cycle. Weekly booking volumes rose steadily through the second quarter, peaking between Weeks 28 and 36, before tapering off toward the end of the year. This pattern reflected the rhythm of global supply chains, driven by manufacturing lead times in Asia, pre-holiday restocking cycles in Europe and North America, and synchronized demand from major retail markets.

In 2020, that rhythm fractured. Early in the year, bookings dipped sharply as COVID-19 lockdowns shuttered factories in China and halted global trade flows. By mid-year, however, demand rebounded and inventories were replenished, leading to a surge in bookings. Unlike pre-pandemic years where peaks were sharp and time-bound, 2020's elevated volume stretched from late Q2 through Q4, with weekly bookings exceeding 2 million TEUs for much of the second half.

In 2021, global bookings hit record highs. Volumes consistently surpassed 2.2 million TEUs per week from Week 19 through Week 40. The usual seasonal rise and fall was replaced by a prolonged, elevated plateau. Carriers added capacity, shippers advanced orders, and supply chains strained under continuous pressure. It was the last year global container flows followed a clear high-volume trajectory.

Since then, the shape of the curve has changed. Bookings declined in 2022 but retained some residual seasonal movement. By 2023 and 2024, however, seasonality had largely disappeared. Booking volumes flattened, staying mostly between 1.6 million and 1.9 million TEUs per week throughout the year. The once-clear peak period faded, replaced by a more evenly distributed demand - a trend that continues into 2025.

This flattening suggests a broader structural shift. Seasonal cycles once shaped the flow of goods. Now, disruption, inventory shifts, and sourcing diversification define it.

Global container bookings peaked in 2021 — and never found a new rhythm

​Read the full report here​

China’s Iranian crude imports near record high, again - Vortexa​

China imported over 1.7 mbd of Iranian crude in June—just shy of the March record. But what’s different this time?

China’s seaborne crude imports rose to 10.6 mbd in June, up 11% m-o-m and 6% y-o-y, even as ongoing maintenance kept overall refinery throughput at the lower end of the seasonal range.

The increase was largely driven by strong inflows of Middle Eastern grades:

• Saudi crude imports climbed to a 30-month high near 2mbd, well above the 1.5bbd average seen in the first five months of the year, following aggressive cuts in May-loading OSPs.
• Imports from other non-sanctioned Middle Eastern suppliers—including Iraq, the UAE, and Oman—also rose moderately.

​China’s crude imports from Saudi Arabia (b/d)​

In contrast, imports from other regions declined, causing a pause in China’s crude stockbuild during the second half of June. Stocks had been rising by over 1mbd during April and May.

​Onshore crude inventories (excl. underground SPR) reached a record 1.09 billion barrels in the week ending June 22, before easing in the following three weeks.

China’s crude inventories could pick up again in August, driven by the arrival of cargoes purchased in the wake of the recent benchmark price collapse.

Faster workarounds for Iranian oil—even as refinery demand slows

China’s imports of Iranian crude surged back to over 1.7mbd in June, rebounding from May’s low of 1.1mbd—even as run rates at Shandong’s teapot refineries continued to decline, and are expected to stay weak in July due to delayed maintenance.

The spike in flows was driven by geopolitical and logistical factors:

• The Israel-Iran conflict prompted Iran and affiliated traders to expedite crude movements east, away from potential strike zones.
• Iranian crude and condensate exports hit a record 1.9mbd in June, with crude loadings peaking at 2.5mbd during June 1–12—just before Israel’s strike—before falling to 1.2mbd over the next 10 days.
• Iranian crude on water remained elevated into July, with loadings rebounding to 1.7mbd again from late June.
• Ongoing US tanker sanctions are unlikely to halt Iranian oil flows, but they will continue to drive strong demand for “clean” tankers that can facilitate compliant STS operations.

Shandong’s onshore crude inventories rose by nearly 20mb in June—an increase that mirrors the rise in Iranian arrivals, especially since refinery crude consumption did not pick up.

​Shandong onshore crude inventories (mb) – total (LHS) vs. private-owned (RHS)​

​Read the full report here​

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