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Insights 📈

Oil & Gas 🛢️

• VLCCs In Vogue (Link)
• Gaining Momentum - Nigeria's Dangote Refinery is Nearing Full Capacity (Link)
• Uncertainty vs volatility – and the difference between flows and freight (Link)

Dry 🚢

• Total coal 2024 shipment volume from U.S. to Europe estimated at 25.2 million tonnes, down from 2023 (Link)
• Cargo Order Volumes Indicate Further Gains for Sugar Prices (Link)
• Weekly Freight Recap: 30/01/25 (Link)

Other 🌍

• Trump Tariffs Transform Trade (Link)
• Trade lane review: Far East – West Coast North America (Link)

Explore, test, and feedback on maritime data solutions before they hit the market.

We're delighted to be launching a number of beta tests for new-to-market data services over the next few months, and we'd like to offer you the opportunity to take part.

How does it work?

Our upcoming beta tests will focus on new data services created by our partners.

Participants will:

• Learn about new and upcoming solutions
• Test new data services as they are being developed
• Access these services before general release

Who is this for?

We're looking for people who:

• Who consider data and analytics as a core part of their business
• Are willing to engage and provide feedback
• Are open-minded about exploring new use cases and applications

Upcoming Opportunities 2025

We have several beta tests scheduled over the next few months, including:

• Global Maritime Security Event Data
• A new benchmark for asset quality, backed by the world’s largest network of surveyors. (Closes 17/02)
• Predictive models for Freight

How to get involved?

You can register your interest for this, and future beta tests below:

Another Record Year for Dry Bulk Flows in 2024 - AXSMarine​

In a stark departure from normal trading patterns a member of Russia’s Crimea-calling fleet is sailing directly for Libya in what experts say is a nuanced decision designed to both offload cargo shipped from an occupied port and further Russia’s foreign policy objectives.

Global Dry Bulk seaborne trade exceeded 5.6bn MT of cargo transported for the first time in history in 2024, according to our Trade Flows data. Each quarter of last year set its own record, surpassing 2023 levels by about 4.2% on average, with the strongest year-over-year performance achieved in Q4 with a 5.2% gain. Over 154,000 individual laden legs were carried out by Dry Bulkers last year, an increase of just under 2% compared to 2023 voyage counts.

The active Dry Bulk fleet engaged in the international trades was measured at just under 17,500 individual vessels in 2024, increasing by 3.1% year-over-year. As a testament to the boost in its efficiency, over the past decade, transported Dry Bulk volumes per year have increased by 26.3% while the number of voyages for these quantities increased by 9.2%.

Almost all major Dry Bulk commodities registered year-over-year increases in trade volumes in 2024. Iron Ore, the most commonly shipped Dry Bulk cargo worldwide, saw 1.68bn MT shipped by vessels in 2024 for a 3.9% year-over-year increase. The largest exporter of Iron Ore – Australia – boosted its output by 1.1% year-over-year in 2024, with a record 928m MT discharged across the globe.

Welcome to the Wild South: Iranian oil shipments find new discharge hubs - Kpler​

Just as ports in China’s Shandong province, home to dozens of teapot refiners, are still awaiting clarity on whether they can receive tankers added to the OFAC sanctions list, Iranian oil sellers have already found new hubs to offload their sanctioned cargo—about 1,500 km south of Shandong.

Ever since the state-owned Shandong Port Group, which operates major terminals in Qingdao, Rizhao, Yantai, and Dongying, issued a preemptive ban three weeks ago on receiving US-sanctioned tankers, no vessels listed by OFAC carrying Iranian oil have successfully offloaded at its facilities. While it remains unclear how long the Shandong Port Group will strictly enforce the ban, oil traders have explored a new workaround—adding yet another voyage to an already complex journey.

As of January 27, two Iranian crude carriers, Nichola and Dorena, had docked at Huizhou Port in southern China, with the latter believed to have completed offloading. Neither tanker had previously been seen calling at Huizhou Port as Iranian oil haulers. A market insider told Kpler that all oil storage tanks at Huizhou Port have been rented out by Chinese traders, likely in preparation for receiving more Iranian cargoes from sanctioned tankers. Traders will then hire non-sanctioned tankers to transport Iranian oil to buyers in Shandong, inevitably adding a few dollars to the cost—either absorbed by Iranian sellers or passed on to Shandong buyers.

Similar to Huizhou, ports in China's eastern Zhejiang province appear ready to accept sanctioned vessels rejected by Shandong. At least three tankers, Carnatic, Clio, and Oxis, which had previously signalled their intent to head to Shandong ports have now changed their destination to Ningbo/Zhoushan in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, the VLCC Bendigo changed its destination from Shandong to Hainan in mid-January but remains anchored off the island.

Despite creative approaches to delivering cargoes to China, Iranian crude oil arrivals are estimated to decline by 277 kbd m/m to 1.1 Mbd in January, as the shipping capacity bottleneck caused by the latest round of US sanctions on Iranian oil vessels remains not fully resolved. For the same reason, Iranian oil floating storage has surged to a 27-week high of 20.68 Mbbls, with over 70% anchored in Malaysian and Singaporean waters.

Dry Bulk Market Insights, February 2025 - Tradeviews​

Macro Economic

The Indonesian government will require mineral resource exporters to hold all proceeds onshore for at least one year for cargoes worth at least $250,000 starting from March 1. The move is expected to boost Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves by $90 billion a year and support the local currency. Under existing rules, exporters are required to retain 30% of such proceeds domestically for three months. The government is offering exporters term deposits free from capital gains tax. However, the head of the Indonesian Mining Association said that even the current retention level has disrupted cashflow. Companies exporting Indonesian coal and nickel will be impacted.

The US Trade Representative launched a probe into China’s dominance of the global maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors in April 2024 at the request of a group of US unions. In the final days of the Biden administration, investigators have reportedly concluded that China has used unfair policies and practices giving the US grounds for imposing penalties. This could include higher tariffs or port fees for Chinese-built vessels, as advocated by the US unions who want to see a revival in US shipbuilding. We await further developments from the incoming Trump administration. Suffice it to say that there is the possibility for serious disruption to shipping markets and trade.

Agriculture

Brazil’s agricultural sector is expected to produce a record 322.3 million tonnes of grains, pulses and oilseeds in the 2024/25 season, up 8.2% year-on-year, according to the National Supply Company, Conab. This includes more than 166 million tonnes of soybeans, up over 11% on the previous harvest. Maize production is expected to reach 119.6 million tonnes, up 3.3%, while rice output is forecast at 11.99 million tonnes, an increase of 13.2%.

The European Commission has adopted a proposal to impose tariffs on more agricultural products and certain nitrogen-based fertilisers from Russia and Belarus. The EU increased tariffs last year on grain from both countries and said that new tariffs will apply to the 15% of agricultural imports that had yet to be subject to increased duties.
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Thank you for your time.

Regards,

James Littlejohn

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

+44 (0)208 050 9806

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