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Chevron’s Venezuela comeback will spark heavy crude price correction - Kpler​

It didn’t take long for Washington to reverse its stance on Venezuela, much like many of its policy shifts these days. U.S. refiners will welcome the move, Chinese teapots will feel the pinch, and the heavy crude market is set for flow reshuffles and price realignments.

Market & Trading calls:

• Bearish on Canadian crude prices in both the U.S. and Asia, as heavy crude tightness is expected to ease with the return of Venezuelan barrels to PADD 3.
• Bullish on Venezuelan oil production, with output likely to rebound as access to U.S. naphtha resumes.
• Bullish on Merey prices in China as cargo availability is poised to tighten amid shifting trade flows.

Washington has reportedly reauthorised Chevron’s operations in Venezuela, reversing its decision from just two months ago to revoke the licenses that allowed the company to produce oil in the Latin American country and market the barrels in the U.S. Details of the renewed permission remain unclear, but it is expected to help cool the heat in the heavy crude market — albeit arriving somewhat late, as the peak summer demand season is nearing its end. Nevertheless, it introduces upside risk to global supply just as the market is on the brink of shifting into oversupply by late Q3.

U.S. imports of Venezuelan crude peaked at as much as 300 kbd between late 2024 and early 2025, with the vast majority flowing to the PADD 3 region. On average, volumes reached 230 kbd last year and 166 kbd over the first five months of this year. The most recent Venezuelan crude cargo to the U.S. was delivered to Valero’s St. Charles refinery in mid-June.

Given their refinery configurations and product yield structures, refiners in PADD 3 require medium and heavy sour crude to sustain operations. However, they appear to be struggling to immediately replace Venezuelan barrels, as heavy crude supplies have been tight globally this summer due to strong demand and unplanned outages. Meanwhile, strong HSFO cracks this year have prompted refiners to reduce residual fuel use within their systems and instead boost their intake of heavy crude — further tightening an already constrained heavy crude market. Seaborne crude imports to PADD 3 fell to a four-month low of 1.04 mbd in June and have remained at a similar level so far in July.

Bracing for the impact of a Brazil trade war - ImportGenius​

From morning coffee to BBQ burgers to wastewater treatment, the blanket 50% tariff on Brazilian goods will hit the US economy —and its households

With trade talks between the United States and Brazil at a standstill, it’s expected that US President Donald Trump’s threatened 50% tariff on all Brazilian imports will come into effect this Friday, August 1. And when it does, it will have a vast array of impacts on the American economy.

While the public focus of the trade dispute has been on Brazil’s coffee imports, coffee beans do not tell the whole story of Brazil-U.S. trade.

Brazil provides America with whole and processed foods, manufactured goods, raw ores, petroleum products, chemicals, and complex machinery — essentially, everything from raw coffee beans to finished airplanes. And because the threatened 50% tariffs on Brazil are higher than on most other countries, American firms that rely on Brazilian imports will need to consider alternative sources to minimize their tariff exposure. This edition of The Manifest shines a spotlight on select Brazilian imports and the potential impact of 50% tariffs.

Brazil’s top U.S. import: oil and gas

Crude oil is Brazil’s most valuable export to the U.S., valued at nearly $6.5 billion in 2024. Brazil also consistently ranks among the top 10 countries in the world for petroleum exports to the United States. Though Brazilian crude oil imports account for less than 5% of America’s total imports, it is still a substantial volume — one that America’s top energy companies rely upon. ‍

Marathon, whose subsidiaries account for nearly half of all Brazilian crude imports to the United States, operates more than 7,000 gas stations across the country. No matter which company is doing the importing, a 50% cost increase in Brazilian crude will likely lead them to seek out new suppliers.

Beyond coffee: frozen beef and cane sugar

Coffee is Brazil’s second most valuable import to the United States, valued at more than $1.8 billion in 2024. Folger’s, the leading supermarket coffee brand, is the country’s single largest purchaser of Brazilian coffee beans, relying on the South American country for more than 60% of its supply. Folger’s is also among the largest customers to the Port of New Orleans, where the company roasts its beans, accounting for nearly 10% of total TEU landings — demonstrating the many potential ripple effects of a 50% tariff.

But coffee is not the only consumer product imported from Brazil.. Almost every American who eats beef has likely consumed Brazilian beef. America imported more than $896 million worth of Brazilian beef in 2024, accounting for nearly a quarter of all beef imports.

When Compliance Fails Upstream: Lessons from Maritime Supplier Crackdowns - Windward​

Sanctions enforcement in the maritime domain is no longer confined to rogue vessels and bad-faith operators. It now reaches into the supply chain itself, where spare parts, ship components, and fuel contracts are increasingly treated as evidence. For maritime equipment manufacturers and service providers, the assumption of being one step removed from regulatory exposure is officially obsolete.

Recent enforcement actions show just how far upstream regulators are willing to go. Whether you’re selling industrial pumps, outfitting patrol vessels, or refuelling ships at port, you may be closer to sanctions risk than you think. Three recent cases; a Germany-based industrial supplier, a European shipyard, and a global fuel provider, reveal the true extent of this shift.

Case 1: An Industrial Supplier Turned Sanctions Violator

In 2024, a Germany-based industrial equipment supplier found itself facing a stark reality: even indirect involvement in sanctions violations carries severe consequences. The company sourced an Australian polypropylene plant intended for Turkey, unaware it was ultimately destined for Iran’s sanctioned petrochemical sector. Despite the lack of direct intent, OFAC investigators followed a meticulous paper trail — shipping documents, payment flows through U.S. financial institutions, and internal communications — that linked the supplier directly to sanctionable activities. Ultimately, the company paid a hefty $14.55 million fine.

Case 2: Sinking in Dual-Use Waters

A prominent European shipyard experienced firsthand how dual-use equipment can blur lines between legitimate commerce and sanctionable offense. In April 2025, national prosecutors charged the firm for violating EU sanctions against Russia, alleging the delivery of civil-grade cranes and vessel components to Russian entities potentially serving military applications. The shipyard faced not only sanctions charges but also parallel allegations of bribery and money laundering. The case marked a fundamental shift: regulators now consider shipyards and marine manufacturers as critical gatekeepers whose compliance oversight directly impacts international security.

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