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Insights 📈

Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Exploring correlation in CPP freight and arb indicators (Link)
• OPEC Remains Opaque (Link)
• What’s Steering Aframax Demand? (Link)​

Dry 🚢

• Decrease in mining activity at major mines in Australia like Goonyella, Saraji and Moranbah North. (Link - email required)
• Agricultural Commodities Update (Link)
• Minor Bulks Defy Global Headwinds: Bauxite, Steel & Fertilisers in Focus (Link)

Other 🌎

• Key Container Shipping Data Trends: July 2025 (Link)
• Container Vessel Dwell Time by Carrier at Key Global Ports – July 2025 (Link)
• Sanctioned, Stateless and Falsely Flagged Tankers Test Europe’s Resolve (Link)

London International Shipping week

We're looking forward to the best minds in shipping descending upon London in mid-September.

We'll be sharing the events we'll be attending, and hope to see many of you there.

If you'd like to book a meeting with us while you're here please do so.

China and U.S. Booking Trends Shift Ahead of November Tariff Deadline Extension - Vizion​

With the U.S.–China tariff hike postponed 90 days to November 10, 2025, importers have a brief window under the current regime: 10% “reciprocal” tariffs and 20% “fentanyl” tariffs on most Chinese goods, plus sectoral add-ons, while China keeps a 10% tariff on U.S. imports. Without this pause, duties would have jumped to 145% on U.S. imports from China and 125% on China’s retaliation, so short-term planning for the holiday build is back on the table and near-term pull-forward is likely. In this deep dive, we analyze how booking behavior is adjusting on both China to U.S. and U.S. to China lanes, with three-year trendlines, year-over-year and week-over-week changes, daily patterns since May, and product categories to watch, so operators can make sourcing, pricing, and inventory decisions with clearer signal before the November deadline.

China to U.S. bookings in 2025 rebound sharply after slow start

China-to-U.S. container bookings have followed a familiar seasonal arc over the past three years, but 2025 stands out for its slower start and sharper mid-year rebound. Weekly volumes in early Q1 2025 lagged both 2023 and 2024, bottoming in Week 5 before climbing steadily. A significant surge began in late May, peaking in Weeks 20 and 21 at more than 220,000 TEUs, as shippers front-loaded orders ahead of potential tariff hikes. Since then, bookings have eased but remain elevated compared with early-year levels.

Russia’s far east ports go dark in AIS interference outbreak - Lloyd's List

RUSSIA’s far east is the latest area to experience severe disruption to Automatic Identification System data, with 98 vessels, mainly tankers, having been affected since August 6, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.

There have previously been signs of third-party interference off Nakhodka Bay, where Kozmino oil terminal is located, as early as September 2024, but this was limited to vessels approaching the port.

On August 6 there was a sudden increase in the number of incidents of disruptions to AIS data across the entire bay and the area just outside of it.

The interference is so severe that false location data is being received for ships throughout the entire period they are loading cargo, making it impossible to track their activity during this time with AIS alone.

Ships that are caught up in the interference are the victims of third-party efforts to disrupt and manipulate Global Navigation Satellite System receivers, which AIS systems rely on to derive position information.

GNSS interference is a common feature of conflict zones.

In the case of Russia, incidents of signal interference around its maritime trading lanes first emerged in November 2023.

Tariffs threats and trade tensions lift the Asian sour market as gluts emerge in the West of Suez - Kpler​

Despite a notable deterioration in supply-demand fundamentals since last month’s Crude View, we have significantly revised our oil price forecast higher. Our new 12-month forecast for NSD now averages $60.30/bbl, up from $55/bbl in our previous update. This upward adjustment is not rooted in improving balances, in fact, our data points to a growing oversupply, but rather in the increasing disconnection between market sentiment and fundamentals. Oil prices are reacting more to political noise, especially signals from President Trump, than to actual physical imbalances.

Our updated balances show a sustained oversupply of roughly 2 Mbd through to the end of 2026. Yet, investor sentiment has turned more bullish, particularly on Brent. According to CFTC data, net long positions from portfolio investors and money managers on ICE Brent have surged from 166 Mbbls a month ago to 261 Mbbls today. WTI, in contrast, has seen net length halve over the same period, from 178 Mbbls to 88 Mbbls, suggesting a geopolitical skew in positioning.

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One of the key drivers behind this divergence is the rising risk premium linked to Russian oil. The US administration has floated the possibility of secondary sanctions or tariffs on buyers of Russian barrels, creating uncertainty among market participants, particularly India. While no immediate supply disruption has materialised, the threat alone has been enough to lend support to prices.

Interestingly, other headline developments have failed to trigger material price corrections. Market participants brushed off bearish news such as the potential Trump administration reversal of Chevron’s license in Venezuela. Similarly, rising trade tensions and tariff announcements did not catalyse a sell-off. As a result, front-month ICE Brent has remained in a relatively tight range, oscillating between $67 and $73/bbl throughout July.

While we still expect the market to eventually absorb and react to the underlying weak fundamentals, we now believe that downside risks are more limited in the short term. One reason is the erratic, headline-driven nature of market reactions. President Trump's potential for sudden announcements has diminished speculative appetite on both the long and short sides. His recent quote that “WTI at $64/bbl is great” exemplifies the kind of verbal intervention that adds a floor to price expectations.

Politically, Trump’s position is also complex. While he advocates for lower fuel costs to support the broader US economy, he is unlikely to alienate key oil-producing states like Texas, North Dakota and Alaska, where his voter base is strong (56%, 67%, and 54%, respectively in 2024). With breakeven prices for new Permian wells estimated between $60–65/bbl WTI, we view this range as a short-term price floor.

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James Littlejohn

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Info@maritimedata.ai

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