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Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Too Close To Call (Link)
• Donald Trump’s victory to keep crude prices volatile (Link)
• He's Back! (Link)

Dry 🚢

• Sharp Drop in Dry Bulk Freight Rates, But Growing Demand for Key Cargoes in Handysize (Link)
• Dry Bulk Weekly Freight Update (Link)

Other 🌍

• The Impact of the Red Sea Crisis on European & Asian Port Congestion (Link)
• Data, deception, and detection shape national security (Link)

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AIS Market News: Kpler Acquires Spire Maritime​

Kpler, a data and analytics platform for trade intelligence, today announced its acquisition of Spire Maritime, a prominent provider of satellite-powered data for real-time global vessel tracking. Read the press release here​

Suez Canal struggles with transits while Bab el Mandeb makes minor monthly gains - Lloyd's List​

TRANSITS through the Suez Canal are at their lowest capacity since the start of the Red Sea crisis, highlighting the increasingly detrimental impact of Houthi attacks on Egypt’s economy.

Some 877 cargo-carrying vessels passed through Suez Canal in October, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence data.

It is a negligible increase from the 868 recorded the month prior, but measuring the transits by the sum of cumulative dwt reveals a 4% drop in traffic month on month to 65.5m dwt.

This is a new low in passings by capacity, surpassing the 67.5m dwt recorded in June.

Egypt’s foreign minister said the country’s economy has suffered “substantial losses” because of the Houthi campaign of aggression in the Red Sea, losing an estimated $6bn in revenues generated from the Suez Canal.

Yet, Egypt has been reluctant to openly criticise the Houthis or exert diplomatic influence to reign in attacks.

“There are a lot of geopolitical reasons why the Egyptian government is somewhat stuck,” explains Ian Ralby, chief executive of consultancy IR Consilium.

“Most notably, because we have let the Houthis hold the false narrative that what they are doing is protesting Israel, then Egypt acting against the Houthis could be seen as doing something to support Israel.”

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PS: Lloyd's List have launched a new app - you can download it here​

Trump presidency to target Iran but ultimately it is China’s decision that matters - Vortexa​

Trump is likely to ramp up sanctions on Iran, following his policy pre-Biden when the United States left the JCPOA and sanctioned Iran unilaterally. We’ve already observed the Biden administration designate a record number of vessels in the Iranian trade in 2024. However, despite the effort, we’ve seen Iran’s crude exports average over 1.6mbd in 2024, the highest level since US sanctions were imposed in late 2018. This raises questions as to how Trump could have an impact.

Iran is in a different position to where it was four years ago. Iran could respond to heightened sanctions by expanding the dark fleet, bringing in more non-sanctioned tankers into the trade. They have expanded their shipping network over the last few years, so this shouldn’t be difficult. There are approximately 80 VLCCs currently in the mainstream market that could be ideal candidates to be sold into the dark fleet, given the age profile of 18 years old and older; the average age of VLCCs that join the dark fleet.

Amid a broader decline in crude demand and weakening refining economics, Chinese refiners are increasingly favouring cheaper spot crude to improve margins. China’s January-October imports of Iranian crude rose 30% y-o-y, vs a 5% decline in the country’s total seaborne crude imports. Private refiners are primarily turning to heavily discounted Iranian and Venezuelan barrels, while state-run refiners are limiting their exposure to Russian crude. Imports of discounted barrels from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia remain robust, often at the expense of other crude grades (see insight for more).

Chinese buyers have already established sophisticated networks over the last few years, which has supported their increased purchases of discounted Iranian feedstock. Heightened sanctions may provide buyers the impetus to expand their network further to circumvent sanctions and allow the barrels to freely flow into its ports. For example, the logistics of longer STS chains involving more tankers and middle-men, which we’ve observed over the last few years.
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Build Time for New Vessels Continues Rising - AXSMarine​

The demand for new vessels in the global merchant fleet, particularly Tankers, Container Ships, and LNG carriers, continues to grow in 2024. With it, a new challenge is emerging - the delivery time for new orders has steadily increased, impacting stakeholders across the board.

Importance of rising delivery times

Shipyard delivery times - the period between an order placement and the ship delivery to its owner - offer a critical view into yard capacity and market demand. Since 2020, the average delivery time has been gradually extending for Container Ships, Dry Bulkers, and Tankers. After 2022, the trend has been going upwards for all four major segments, including LNG carriers. As a result, average delivery times are now approaching three years for Tanker vessels and 3.2 years for Container Ships. For LNG carriers, it is even longer, especially from China, where average delivery times are approaching 4.8 years.

When shipyard capacity is constrained, the lead time for commissioning new vessels lengthens. Shipowners may then be forced to keep older ships in operation longer, or they might look to the second-hand market to meet their fleet needs. Tight yard space can also affect newbuild pricing, pushing up costs and limiting flexibility.

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​The availability of shipbuilding slots has been bottlenecked, particularly in the most prolific shipbuilding nations. China now averages around 3 years in delivery time, with Tankers at 2.8 years, and LNG vessels even higher. Capesize Dry Bulkers ordered in 2024 are currently expected to be delivered in 3.6 years on average.

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James Littlejohn

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Info@maritimedata.ai

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