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Insights 📈

Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Structural Checkmate (Link)
• Strait Tensions Redirect North American Crude Flows (Link)
• Another Brick In The Wall - Houthi attacks complicate Saudi exports (Link)

Dry 🚢

• Q2 2026 saw strong growth in soybean and corn flows driven by a record Brazilian harvest (Link)
• Freight Outlook - 24/07 (Link)
• China unveiled a 2026-2030 agriculture modernization strategy (Link)

Other 🌎

• China’s New Record: Over 1M Cars Exported in a Month (Link)
• New Section 301 tariffs slated for next week (Link)
• Two Closed Corridors: Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Both Effectively Shut to Tanker Traffic (Link)

Fuel Oil & Feedstock Flows

We put our new projective fuel oil & feedstock flows data to the test against price.

Across 22,572 configurations, observable inventory pressure lined up with forward Singapore HSFO cracks about two weeks ahead.

Read the framework → maritimedata.ai/fueloilflows​

Red Sea light ends transiting BeM fall after dataset high - Vortexa​

​Red Sea-origin light ends (gasoline/blending components, naphtha and NGLs) passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb have dropped by over a third as of July 28 after hitting a Vortexa dataset high (2016-2026) of 1.6mb on July 6 as supply constraints extend beyond the Middle East Gulf and into the Red Sea.

Since Saudi-origin seaborne exports accounted for ~95% of oil moving through the Bab-el-Mandeb in June, the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi Arabia announced on July 20 effectively compromises all oil flows through the chokepoint. Destinations for Saudi-origin light ends are varied, with seaborne flows out of Saudi Arabia’s western ports like Yanbu, Rabigh and Jizan historically moving through the Bab-el-Mandeb to Singapore, Indonesia and other Asian countries.

While Vortexa data shows vessels and carriers are still transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb, 22 moved through the chokepoint on July 28, compared to 27 on July 19, the day before the Houthi blockade was announced. During this period, the vessel and carrier count fell as low as 12 on July 25.

Both the blockade itself as well as uncertainty around the enforcement of the blockade forces suppliers in the Red Sea to consider an alternate export route out of the region. If a vessel leaving the Red Sea for south or east Asia bypasses the Bab-el-Mandeb it must use the Suez Canal, which then requires passage through the Strait of Gibraltar and around the Cape of Good Hope. Depending on the port origin and destination, the voyage time from Red Sea producers to Asian consumers can more than double by not transiting the Bab-el-Mandeb.

For example, the most common origin and destination ports for LPG+ (LPG and ethane) on this route in the past year was Yanbu, Saudi Arabia and Sariaya, Philippines, with a fully laden VLGC able to complete a voyage between the two ports in 19 days when passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb. Without use of the Bab-el-Mandeb, however, the voyage time from Yanbu to Sariaya more than doubles to 47 days. In comparison, a VLGC traveling from the US Gulf Coast to Sariaya at the same speed can complete this voyage in ~35 days, increasing its appeal as a supplier if Red Sea-origin light ends cannot make their way through the Bab-el-Mandeb.

Where China's Container Exports Are Going in 2026 - Vizion​

The most striking thing about China's container trade in 2026 is how quiet it looks. After a year of tariff shocks, booking collapses, and pull-forward rushes, the weekly China to US line has settled into a calm rhythm. That calm is the story. The volatility ended, and the volume that left the lane during 2025 has stayed gone.

Vizion booking data across seven major China export lanes, covering week 1 through week 28 of both 2025 and 2026, shows where it went.

The US lane found a lower floor

The grey 2025 line tells the story of last year's whiplash. Bookings collapsed through April as tariff escalation hit, bottoming at 53,122 in week 18. Two weeks later, the tariff pause triggered a rush that sent weekly bookings to 227,510, the highest reading in the entire dataset.

The yellow 2026 line shows what came after. No collapse, no rush, just a steady band running between roughly 100,000 and 160,000 bookings a week. Through week 28, China to US bookings are down 7.8% year over year. Strip out the weeks distorted by the shifting Lunar New Year calendar and the decline still sits above 4%. The trade has stopped whipsawing and settled into a structurally smaller lane.

Southeast Asia is the destination

Four Southeast Asian lanes combined, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia, are up 28.3% year to date at 1.68 million bookings, and the pace is accelerating: over the most recent nine weeks the composite runs 34% above the comparable 2025 period. This matches what Vizion sees on the import side, where Southeast Asia's share of US inbound bookings has climbed from 20% to 29% over two years. Two independent views of the same shift.

The lane by lane detail sharpens the picture. Malaysia leads at 39.3% growth year to date. Indonesia is up 27.4% and accelerating hardest, running 49% above last year over the most recent nine weeks. Thailand has grown a steady 25.1% in every window measured.

Vietnam, the lane that draws the most transshipment attention, tells a different story. It is up 22.7% year to date, which makes it the slowest growing of the four. Volume built rapidly through the first quarter, peaked at 23,140 bookings in week 13, and has faded 48% since. A first quarter peak is unusual when transpacific and Asia to Europe lanes typically build toward summer, and a March rush of Chinese inputs is consistent with shippers front loading routes while rules of origin enforcement tightens. Meanwhile the three lanes facing less scrutiny are still climbing. The rerouting appears to flow around the pressure.

Europe is absorbing more, and faster

China to Europe is the largest lane in the dataset at 4.19 million bookings year to date, and it is accelerating. Year to date growth stands at 8.3%, but over the most recent nine weeks the lane is running 12.4% above the comparable 2025 period, with 2026 volumes topping 200,000 bookings in week 22. Goods that once crossed the Pacific are increasingly landing in European ports, which aligns with the import pressure European trade officials have been flagging all year.

From products to crude: how Ukraine strikes reshaped Russia's seaborne exports - AXSMarine​

Ukraine's strikes on Russian ports and refineries stepped up sharply after March 2026, and the effect on Russia's seaborne oil trade was not really a simple fall in volumes. What changed was the mix. Refined product exports out of the Baltic terminals fell apart, while crude exports, above all to India, ran higher. Those two moves are really one story. With refineries damaged, the crude that would normally have been processed at home was pushed onto the water instead. At the same time the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut Middle East supply to India and pulled Russian barrels in from the demand side. Because the crude surge cushioned the product collapse, the headline total barely moved, which is exactly why looking at the total on its own is misleading. The story is in the composition.

The total looks quiet

Add everything up, all loading regions and every commodity, and Russian seaborne exports in 2026 sat inside their normal historical range for most of the year, sliding into the lower half of that range after the strikes.

Anyone glancing at that line would reasonably conclude not much had happened. However the strikes impact are visible once you split the flows by product and by loading region.

Products: the Baltic terminals fold

The clearest damage shows up in clean products loaded at Russia's Baltic terminals, Ust-Luga and Primorsk. After the strikes, clean product loadings from these two ports drop well below their ten-year floor and stay there, the steepest fall of anything on the board, with the 2026 line running at a fraction of a normal year.

Crude leaving the same terminals holds up far better, so this is not the Baltic suffering across the board. It is specifically refined products, the output of refineries, that has been knocked out.

The same picture holds nationally. Total refined product exports fell to around 1.6 million b/d by June and stayed close to that into late July, below the ten-year range for the time of year. Diesel and gasoil took the worst of it, and Moscow imposed a full diesel export ban on 8 July.

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