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Insights 📈

Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Closing The Door (Again) On Venezuela (Link)
• Evolution of VLCC net supply growth in the Arabian Gulf (Link)
• Robust global LPG supply, export growth expected, challenging netbacks (Link)
• OPEC + Production Boost Adds to Oversupply Fears (Link)​

Dry 🚢

• The dry bulk freight market is currently experiencing a significant upswing (Link)
• China announced the imposition of tariffs on $2.6 billion worth of Canadian agricultural products (Link)
• Freight Recap (Link)

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Explore, test, and feedback on maritime data solutions before they hit the market.

We're delighted to be launching a number of beta tests for new-to-market data services over the next few months, and we'd like to offer you the opportunity to take part.

Upcoming Opportunities 2025

• Global Maritime Security Event Data
• A new benchmark for asset quality, backed by the world’s largest network of surveyors.
• Predictive models for Freight

How to get involved?

You can register your interest for future beta tests below.

Sailing the Sea of Sanctions - Gibsons​

Just before the end of his presidency, the Biden administration gave a parting gift to the tanker markets as the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioned 155 mainly Russia affiliated tankers. In the same week, Shandong Port Group, home to refiners responsible for significant crude imports from countries under US embargo, banned sanctioned tankers from calling into its ports in eastern China. The following weeks saw some redirection of trade flows and rising freight rates especially for VLCCs, as buyers of Iranian and Russian crude attempted to diversify their import streams to safeguard supply.

Not long after Donald Trump came to power, he confirmed that the “maximum pressure” policy from his first administration would be reinstated, raising hopes that widespread sanctions and sanctions enforcement on the Iranian oil trade were forthcoming. Yet, after yesterday’s round of sanctions this brings the number of Iranian tankers sanctioned by OFAC since then to 23, and this hope seems to so far have been misplaced. Freight rates which soared in January have shrugged off any further sanctions announcements from the US, UK and EU, and have come back down to earth. This begs the question whether flows have also returned to normal, or whether any lasting impact of this renewed pressure on Iranian and Russian seaborne flows still prevails.

Russian crude imports to India, one of the main importers of Russian crude, initially dropped below its 2024 average by 200kbd in January, and 300kbd in February, which was compensated for by increased imports from West Africa and Latin America. However, imports of Russian crude into India have rebounded so far in March to above average post-Ukraine War levels, possibly supported by prices recently falling below the price cap threshold.

Chinese crude imports seem to have seen a stronger impact, as flows from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia were 800 and 900kbd lower in January and February than the 2024 average, respectively. These numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, however, as Chinese crude imports from all sources were significantly lower in January, and not all barrels imported in February have been detailed yet. Similarly to India, so far in March imports from Iran, Venezuela, and Russia are back to above 2024 average levels. Run cuts by independent refineries in Shandong may also have contributed to reduced imports, as a change in tax regulations coming into force on January 1^st heavily impacted refining margins.

It was reported that the Trump administration was considering an international accord to inspect Iranian oil tankers at sea, though details have been limited. Overall, this could indicate that increased sanctions had a temporary impact on seaborne flows which seem to be normalising again as workarounds have been found. An alternative explanation is that the full effect is yet to be felt. It was reported today that several Chinese state oil companies are halting purchases of Russian oil for March-loading, which would support this thesis. Thus, the effect of sanctions on the utilisation of the dark and sanctioned fleets remains unclear.

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Oil prices shrug off US-Iran’s cat-and-mouse game over sanctions - Kpler​

While the Trump administration imposes more sanctions on Iranian oil transport, Tehran continues to attract more vessels to join the high-risk but lucrative trade. Therefore, we don’t expect any significant decline in Iran’s crude exports in the near term.

The US Treasury Department imposed sanctions on 13 oil tankers and 17 trading firms for allegedly transporting Iranian oil, its third round of such measures since Trump took office in January as part of the ongoing maximum pressure campaign against Tehran. The new sanctions were introduced just a day after Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, flatly rejected talks with the U.S. over a nuclear deal.

The fresh sanctions will undoubtedly further disrupt Iran’s oil exports, as the country has been grappling with insufficient shipping capacity after the U.S. blacklisted over 100 tankers since Q4 2024. However, the reaction in oil prices remains largely muted, suggesting that the market is sceptical about whether this same old tactic of targeting tankers can meaningfully curb Iranian exports.

Despite tougher U.S. sanctions, Iran’s crude oil exports surged to a whopping 1.82 mbd in February, the highest level since October 2018. In the meantime, China’s imports of Iranian crude reached at least 1.43 mbd, a level last seen in October 2024. Notably, among the February arrivals, two vessels—Hornet and Aventus I were on the OFAC list at the time they discharged cargoes at Huizhou and Huangze, signalling that the ports were willing to receive sanctioned vessels. Market insiders told Kpler that China’s General Administration of Customs has issued no directive on clearing cargoes from OFAC-listed tankers. Therefore, the decision to take the risk ultimately rests with local authorities.

The 9 Biggest Geopolitical & Security Trends This Year - Windward​

Expect the Unexpected…

Geopolitical instability and security threats are increasingly playing out at sea. From trade conflicts and chokepoint vulnerabilities, to hybrid warfare tactics and environmental shifts, government agencies face constant change and volatility. With 2025 off and running, the maritime domain remains a critical battleground where national security, economic stability, and global trade converge.

Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Conflicts
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​The resurgence of “America First” policies and protectionist measures is altering global trade, which also changes geopolitics. President Trump’s proposed and enacted tariffs on Chinese, Mexican, and Canadian imports have triggered diplomatic and economic reactions, leading to retaliatory trade barriers.

These policies could divert cargo flows away from traditional U.S. ports, increase operational costs for shipping companies, and drive consumer goods inflation. Some multi-national corporations are looking into shifting their supply chains in anticipation of trade disruptions, seeing Southeast Asia and Latin America as potential alternative manufacturing hubs. These adjustments take time, and in the short term, businesses will likely face delays, rising transportation costs, and regulatory uncertainty.

Countries frequently cement and maintain their connection via trade ties. The weakening of these ties inevitably undermines the relationship. A shift in traditional trade partners will likely cause ties to grow elsewhere, shifting the power dynamics.

Early indications of these shifts are often evident at sea. From March 2-9, for example, there was an anomalous increase in vessel meetings off Canada’s West Coast. Twenty vessels, all affiliated with companies in China, engaged in ship-to-ship operations. This was a 99% increase above the expected ten vessels – an all-time high!

Undersea Cable Security Risks

Four high-profile incidents targeted critical maritime infrastructure between November 2024 and February 2025 alone!

Undersea cables are the backbone of global communication and finance, transmitting over 99% of international data traffic. Gas and oil also flows through subterranean pipes. Despite their critical importance, these cables and pipes are increasingly at risk from sabotage, espionage, and accidental damage.
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​The recent severing of Baltic Sea cables, suspected to be the work of Russian-affiliated vessels, has highlighted how vulnerable this infrastructure remains. Shadow fleet vessels have been observed loitering near undersea cables, raising alarms about their potential role in espionage and sabotage.

The security risks associated with undersea infrastructure are exacerbated by the lack of international regulations governing these assets. Unlike terrestrial infrastructure, which falls under national sovereignty, undersea cables cross international waters, creating jurisdictional challenges. Many government agencies are now turning to AI-powered risk detection and satellite surveillance to identify suspicious maritime behaviors that could indicate a threat to cable security.

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Thank you for your time.

Regards,

James Littlejohn

Co-Founder

Info@maritimedata.ai

+44 (0)208 050 9806

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