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Oil & Gas 🛢️

• Keep Rollin' (Link)
• China’s LPG imports see sharp slowdown after months of robust performance (Link)
• Atlantic Suezmax mini-rally to cool off as the year ends (Link)

Dry 🚢

• Soft Cargo Order Volumes for Sugar Suggest Prices Will Remain Elevated (Link)
• Weekly Freight Recap: 05/12/24 (Link)
• Dry Bulk Market Insights Report - December 2024 (Link)

Other 🌍

• Risk Insights over 2024 - Infographic (Link)
• Geopolitics & Supply Chains: Lessons from a Year of Crisis in the Red Sea (Link)

The End of an Era - Poten & Partners​

Lower North Sea output accelerates fall in ton-mile demand Yesterday, Equinor and Shell, two major European oil companies with a rich history of exploration and production in the North Sea decided to combine their UK offshore oil and gas assets in a 50/50 Joint Venture (JV). The JV is not growth oriented. To the contrary, the JV will harvest value as the assets naturally decline. The objective is to improve the tax efficiency of the operations and pool their costs. It is the latest development in the rapidly maturing UK North Sea basin. While the situation in the Norwegian Continental Shelf is more positive in the short-term, with output expected to grow slightly in 2025, the long-term trajectory for Norway is also challenging. The IEA expects the total North Sea production will decline by 400,000 b/d by 2030. These changes in North Sea production and exports have obvious implications for the tanker market. ​
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The first significant offshore oil discovery in the North Sea occurred in 1969, when Phillips Petroleum discovered the Ekofisk field in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea. Production started in 1971 and today, Ekofisk remains one of the most important oil fields in the region, producing approximately 127,000 b/d. The oil crises of the 1970s, including the 1973 OPEC oil embargo and the 1979 Iranian revolution led to sharp increase in oil prices, causing widespread economic turmoil in Western Europe and the United States. As a result, these countries, realizing their dependence on the Middle East and other external sources of energy, started to focus on developing alternative sources of energy supply. The significant increase in prices also created an economic incentive for countries to develop their own oil resources. The UK and Norway accelerated exploration and production efforts in the North Sea.

A Persistent Surplus in H1-2025 Leaves OPEC+ No Room to Unwind Production Cuts - Kpler​

Downward revisions to December supply have nearly doubled the deficit for the final month of the year, but the rest of the global crude and condensate balance has seen limited changes. The trend of persistent surpluses through the first five months of 2025 is set to weigh on crude prices.

September’s deficit has remained the same, while a narrowing surplus in October has been due to a dip in refining activity being delayed until November instead. These lower runs than previously expected, particularly in Europe and Russia, have lifted November’s surplus close to 900 kbd. As for Q4, supply has been revised lower by 440 kbd, while demand has been ratcheted down by 350 kbd. Revisions in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iraq) and North America (both Canada and the US) account for most of the supply-side adjustments, while widespread downward revisions across Europe, as well as Russia and Asia, account for the weaker demand side of the picture.

As for 2025 revisions, January’s surplus has narrowed slightly, February and March are little changed, April’s surplus has widened (due to Brazilian refinery maintenance), and May's surplus has increased slightly. On the aggregate, the surplus over the first five months of next year averages 1.3 Mbd, which compares to 560 kbd in 2023 and 490 kbd in 2024. If every barrel of this surplus makes its way into inventories, then stocks would rise by 200 Mbbls over the period. In contrast to the start of the year, the latest revisions have caused the monthly deficits for June, July and August to all widen. After inventory builds are set to weigh on prices through 1H 2025, strong demand should encourage higher prices in the second half of the year.

Global crude and condensate balance, kbd​
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OPEC+ Production

OPEC+ crude output rose by nearly 400 kbd m/m in November, driven by Kazakhstan's Kashagan field resuming operations after maintenance and the commissioning of two new FPSOs in Brazil. Libya's production also rebounded to pre-September outage levels.

Meanwhile, the bloc's major producers have intensified efforts to improve compliance. Saudi Arabia's output declined, partly due to maintenance activities at the Yanbu refinery, while both Russia and Iraq brought their production closer to their respective quotas, signalling stronger adherence to the group's targets.

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Syria crisis creates new risk for shipping and questions for Iran’s dark fleet - Lloyd's List​

Shipping companies were warned to exercise caution and seafarers were told to avoid Syria altogether as Bashar al-Assad, Syria’s dictator for 24 years, reportedly touched down in Moscow after rebels seized control of Damascus, the Syrian capital.

The immediate implications for shipping, however, were reverberating largely throughout the Iranian dark fleet, which has supplied the majority of Syria’s energy imports over recent years.

Initial attention was focused on the Iranian suezmax tanker Lotus (IMO: 9203784) that made a U-turn in the Gulf of Suez on Sunday as the full extent of the rebel victory in Syria, led by the Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, became clear.

According to TankerTrackers, Lotus was due to deliver about 750,000 barrels of Iranian crude to Syria, but the change of direction immediately called into question what happens next.

The immediate options for Lotus are limited with the cargo heading back to Iran on Monday. The crude could be returned to onshore tanks, or Lotus could be used as floating storage off Iran. While it is possible the suezmax would head east for a ship-to-ship transfer, weak Chinese demand suggests that is the least likely immediate option.

But the implications of Lotus’ U-turn are much wider than this single cargo.

“The political landscape suggests this new regime is more aligned with Western countries, which could mean less of a reliance on imports from Iran, which has been its sole crude supplier in recent years,” explained Vortexa senior oil risk analyst Armen Azizian.

Syria’s crude imports from Iran, which supplied its Banias refinery, stood at the around 90,000 barrels per day mark in 2023 and fell to about 60,000-70,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to Vortexa data.

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“If these barrels are now pushed away from Syria, we could see Iran’s crude exports decline by between 60,000-70,000 barrels per day as they don’t have another outlet for these barrels other than China, which is already reducing purchases of Iranian crude,” said Azizian.

If the trade between Iran and Syria subsides, some of those tankers could be left unemployed suggesting Iran’s floating storage could rise, at least in the short term.

Much of Syria’s seaborne trade is conducted by ships with AIS turned off, making precise import figures unreliable.

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